Economy and the Markets

By 7 October 2020January 28th, 2021Economy

Economy and the Markets

By Darren Shirlaw

With everything going on today we can feel unsure of what’s next, so knowing what is happening in our economies and markets is the first step to understanding how to respond and what to prioritise.

Darren Shirlaw explains that the economic situation we are in now is an L-shaped recession. These come in cycles about every thirty years; the last time we had one was 1987. The key to business success is to get yourself educated and informed about what an L-shaped recession looks like and how to get through one.

It is important to realise that a cycle is a cycle even when it is associated with a catastrophic event. What we are dealing with now has two aspects: the global human tragedy of the virus and the economics.

On the other side, some believe they are impacted or will be impacted, but they are busier than they have ever been. They might be fulfilling online orders, or providing an essential service giving them continuity in the marketplace. Interestingly it doesn’t matter which side of the coin they are; in the shock phase, many are in reaction mode and some form of fear, which is to be
expected.

People always respond when there is a cycle. There is undoubtedly much fear in the marketplace, and what we see in the business community is two sides to the coin. Some people are in absolute crisis because their industry is being wiped out or their business has been severely impacted. Few business people are not affected.

From a business perspective, the markets have a 14 to 18-year cycle. The flat of the current 14 years was 1999 to 2013. From 2013 to 2031 there will be a growth period. The last time this happened was between 1981 and 1999. In 1987 we also had a big L-shaped recession halfway up that curve. It is expected that 6 to 7 years into the cycle, you get an L-shaped recession and it will last 18 months; in this case, from March 2020 to September 2021.

From September 2021 for the next ten years, all the way through to 2031, will be a growth period. So, we encourage everyone to understand the timings of the next 18 months.

The first three months of the L-shaped recession is a period of shock. What BoB decided to do as a business, is help everybody through these next months with this webinar series.

When a devastating cyclone or a hurricane hits a locality, the first three months involve just clearing the rubble. The next six months are spent trying to work out what to do with it. People do not want to see a big vision at that point; they are just trying to clear the rubble and clear the decks. After about nine months, people then say – “OK, let’s rebuild!” From 9 months to 18 months, we’ll be in a rebuilding phase.

Why we explain these timings and the market situation, is to help all our clients remain calm and productive through this phase, as well as we can.

When we did this in 2008-2009, we found those who get through the emotions of the recession the quickest are the ones who prepare themselves for coming out of recession, and they are the ones ready to take up the growth.

These cycles repeat themselves. The last time we had a pandemic was the Spanish Flu from 1918 to 1920. If you remember, 1929 was the big crash, but 1920 to 1929 were years of spectacular growth.

When we understand the timings of these cycles, we can move into focusing on the next questions; How do we manage ourselves through this process? How do we restructure our businesses, and how do we then take the opportunity this offers us?

“As an industry we weren’t solving the problems that really mattered. We were disconnected from each other and not leading the way.”

Julie King
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Darren Shirlaw

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